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Kris Roglieri pleaded guilty this week to federal wire fraud in a scheme that took over $50 million from people who believed they were securing large commercial loans. Roglieri ran Prime Capital Ventures, a company that looked legitimate from the outside, but the funding it promised never existed.

Clients were required to pay large advance deposit due diligence fees, interest credit reserves, and other upfront payments to move their deals forward. These deposits often ranged from $25,000 to $75,000 or more, with the promise that funds would either be delivered or refunded. That refund never came.

According to prosecutors, the money was spent. Roglieri used client funds for personal expenses, lifestyle purchases, and to cover obligations to earlier customers. No loans were funded. Dozens of clients lost everything they put in. The total loss is estimated at more than $50 million.

Roglieri has already forfeited over $50 million in assets, including property, vehicles, watches, and other high-end items. That level of restitution gives his legal team real arguments for sentencing.

Prosecutors are expected to recommend between eight and ten years in federal prison. That sounds like a long sentence, but Roglieri has already served close to a year. And once you factor in good time, earned time credits under the First Step Act, and programming, federal time looks very different from the headline number.

If he receives an eight-year sentence, the combination of 12-month RDAP reduction, First Step Act credits, and 6 months halfway house/home confinement could realistically bring his remaining time in actual prison down to somewhere in the range of three to four more years.

For a fraud of this size, involving this much loss, that would be an outcome few expected when this case first broke. If the judge decides on the low end of the range, Roglieri’s time behind bars could be significantly shorter than most people assume.